Mark Humphrys (politics)


Islamism - Nightmare scenarios

  Nightmare No.1: Nuclear attack on the West (possible)

Nightmare No.2: The Destruction of Israel (possible)

Nightmare No.3: The Destruction of the West (unlikely)

Nightmare No.4: Civil war in the West (unlikely)

Optimism - Europe is a sleeping giant

Islamist nightmare scenarios

9/11 showed that Islamism, long a festering problem, may be a serious threat to the free societies of the world. Exactly how serious that threat is remains to be seen. The communists killed 100 million people and threatened the entire world with nuclear holocaust. The fascists killed tens of millions, carried out large-scale genocide and destroyed much of Europe. So far the Islamists are not in that league, though their intentions clearly are.

But a worrying thing about the Islamists is that they may not be deterred as the communists were. They may just go ahead and nuke Israel or a western city, and welcome their martyrdom.

Another problem is the minority, but still depressingly large, number of jihadi sympathisers among Muslims in the West, and the potential this has for starting some kind of awful Bosnia-style, infidels versus Muslims, civil war in Europe, in which innocent Muslims could suffer ethnic cleansing or worse. Here are some nightmare, doomsday scenarios and how likely I think they are.

Never forget the thousands of men, women and children killed for no reason by Islamist religious fascism in New York.
Image from here.
See 9/11 exhibit.

This is only a warning of what is in store for us if the modern fantasy utopian movement of Islamism is not utterly destroyed.
If Islamism is not confronted and utterly destroyed, a nuclear attack against a Western city will happen in the next few decades.
You can surrender all you like, appease all you like. Address supposed Islamist "grievances" all you like. Abandon Israel. Pull out of Iraq. Pull out of the entire Middle East. Stay at home. But nuclear jihad will come. The only way to stop it is to destroy Islamism.

Nightmare No.1: Nuclear attack on the West

Status: Could easily happen in 21st century.

Bad as 9/11 was, it made a previously unlikely nightmare scenario far more real: If the terrorists had a nuclear weapon, they would clearly use it immediately against a western city. As soon as they get such weapons, they will be used. Apocalyptic stateless terrorists cannot be deterred, as terror states like the Soviet Union were.

And nuclear weapons continue to spread. Now the butchers of North Korea have nuclear weapons. While their impoverished people starved to death in a state-caused famine, these butchers spent billions to construct nuclear weapons to threaten the free countries of South Korea and Japan. And the aggressive, Jew-hating, fascist state of Iran seems to be next. Who is going to stop every genocidal tyrant, Islamic fascist, and murderous armed group on the planet getting nukes?

Only America tries to stop this. The UN does nothing. China, Russia and Pakistan help it along. The rest of the world will not take this issue seriously until a western city is destroyed.

Above: The crudest 0.1 kiloton nuclear terrorist attack would destroy much of historic Dublin.
A more sophisticated 10 kiloton nuclear terrorist attack would destroy Dublin between the canals.
The largest bomb ever, the Soviet 57 megaton bomb, would wipe County Dublin off the map.

Our beautiful western cities are under threat from nuclear terrorism.
This is College Green, Dublin.
Picture dated 1817. See full size. From here.

The Axis of Evil

The term "The Axis of Evil" was introduced in the State of the Union Address by George W. Bush, January 29, 2002. See discussion of origins.

At that time, there were 3 unfree countries trying to develop nuclear weapons: Iran, Iraq and North Korea. Hence the logical use of the term, the "Axis of Evil", focusing on these 3 as the most immediate threat to civilization.

Since then, Iraq has been stopped, Iran is still going full steam ahead, and North Korea has, tragically, succeeded, joining the previously existing 3 unfree countries with nuclear weapons: Russia, China and Pakistan.

Nuclear attack on the West will mean the end of the Islamic world

The Islamists are playing with fire. If their attacks go too far - if there are WMD attacks on western cities - if the west starts to feel an actual existential threat - the Islamists may receive nuclear retaliation. They really are playing with fire.

And no, saying that does not mean I want that to happen. This is why this page is called "Nightmares".

Nightmare No.2: The Destruction of Israel

Status: Could easily happen in 21st century.

Many, probably most, Palestinians and Arabs see the long-term plan as the destruction of Israel, involving either killing all the Jews or making them live under an Islamic totalitarian state. But Israel now has nuclear weapons, and nuclear attack on Israel, or the imminent defeat of Israel by Islamic armies, may lead to the nuclear destruction of Mecca, Medina, Riyadh, Tehran, Qom, Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala, Damascus, Cairo, Khartoum and much of the Islamic Middle East.

Nightmare No.3: The Destruction of the West

Status: Unlikely.

Could the future be even worse? Could Islamism, like the Soviet Union, get armed with thousands of nuclear weapons in the 21st century, and then, unlike the Soviet Union, use them?

If the West was going to go down, if our very existence was under threat, if the barbarians threatened to destroy everything we have achieved over the last thousand years, would we use our nukes? I think we would have to, to survive, and the moral blame would lie with the aggressors.

Nightmare No.4: Civil war in the West

Status: Unlikely.

One thing different between this war and World War 2 is the large number of enemies living in our home societies - the minority, but still depressingly large, number of jihadi sympathisers among Muslims in the West. Under the right circumstances - such as mass hysteria after some huge terrorist atrocity - this has the potential for ultimately starting some kind of awful Bosnia-style, infidels versus Muslims, civil war in Europe.

Such a war would likely: (a) lead to the defeat and ethnic cleansing (or worse) of Europe's innocent Muslims, and: (b) lead to the end of European democracy and the resurgence of old-fashioned ultra-nationalist European fascism. It would be a disaster both for Muslims and for infidels.

Could Europe fall?

Reasons why Europe may not fall

Steyn makes a good case, but I don't think Europe is doomed just yet. Predicting the future by extrapolating from current trends has a long record of failure, a notable example being the global population crisis that was supposed to have happened by now. Global warming may turn out to be another. So what could prevent the end of freedom in Europe in the 21st century? Here's a few possibilities:

  1. The Muslim birthrate declines. Muslim immigrants are unlikely to carry on indefinitely with the same birthrate in prosperous Europe as in their impoverished home countries. Martin Walker has some counter-stats. Mark Steyn replies.
  2. Birthrates in Europe's Muslim neighbours are already declining:
    • Morocco - 2.57
    • Algeria - 1.82
    • Tunisia - 1.73
    • Libya - 3.15
    • Turkey - 1.87
    For comparison:
    • Israel - 2.77
    • Ireland - 1.85
    • UK - 1.66
    • France - 1.98

  3. The Great Muslim Apostasy begins in the West (it may already be under way). For every young Muslim attracted by the austerity of jihad and sharia, two more are attracted by sex, atheism and freedom. European countries become more Muslim and "post-Muslim", but it makes little difference.
  4. Fundamentalism is unexpectedly defeated in the Islamic world. Belief in the jihad, sharia (and maybe even the Koran and Muhammed) collapses like belief in communism, as Islamic peoples are exposed to the modern world for the first time. Wolfgang Bruno (and followup) speculates that due to its many weaknesses, Islam itself could be in trouble: "Islam will have faded off the world stage by the end of this century, and .. the process should be apparent by mid-century, or even before."

  5. Europe becomes more assertive. Weak, "post-modern" Europe dies out because it isn't having kids. The stronger, more assertive elements in Europe are, and so the future belongs to them. In America, "red state" Republican voters have more children than "blue state" Democrat voters, which should mean America will get less blue over time. Likewise in Europe, left-wing, anti-American, postmodern, urban cosmopolitan Europeans tend not to have children. Whereas pro-family, pro-west, assertive Europeans probably do. Hence, over time, Europe should become more like America, and hence more assertive in defence of its freedom.
  6. Europe gets serious. Once Europeans see that sharia really threatens their freedom, they wake up, and belief in multiculturalism vanishes overnight like communism. Europeans ban all Islamic fundamentalist immigration. Temporary ban on all Islamic immigration until existing immigrants are integrated. Internment and deportation of all Islamist suspects (instead of surveillance). Any expression of Islamic fundamentalism becomes illegal. Anyone promoting sharia or Islamist ideas is deported. European governments offer massive support for having children, and financially punish the childless.
  7. Europe gets irrational and fascistic. Europe, the birthplace of modern industrial genocide, descends into darkness again. Civil war. Europeans, the inventors of the western way of war - the most deadly and effective way of war in the history of the world - win again of course. Muslims lose. Ethnic cleansing of Islamic population. Wolfgang Bruno thinks Islam will not triumph in the West, but warns there could be European war first, in what he calls The Clash of Fascisms. If sharia is bad for infidels, this could be even worse. The Norway attacks are a glimpse of this nightmare world.

It's not clear what's going to happen. There are many alternatives to Steyn's future of Europe under sharia, just as plausible. Unfortunately, not all of them are good.

Scepticism about extrapolations

The French intifada, 2005

Jihadi scum rioting in Paris, July 2014.

Christian video laying out projections for Muslim demographic growth.
I'm not totally convinced (and I think some of their numbers are wrong).

Optimism - Europe is a sleeping giant

Let me remind you that I remain optimistic. The 21st century, I believe, will see the Islamic world change, not the West. The West will remain free, and will export its corrupting freedom everywhere. It is the Islamists whose world will be destroyed.

A glimpse of the anger felt by millions of Westerners that their freedom is threatened by primitive ideas from the third world.
Anti-sharia crowd at Manchester, Tennessee, June 2013, protests a threat to free speech made by William Killian, U.S. Attorney for Eastern Tennessee. He was quoted as saying that online comments about Islam could be a federal civil rights violation.
He needs to clarify fast that all citizens have the right to criticize Islam. He failed to do so here, and he deserved the hostile reception.


These nightmare scenarios are real threats. But nothing is inevitable. It is still 1933. There is still time to stop all these nightmares from coming to pass. We still have time to destroy Islamism while it is new and weak, rather than wait until 1938 or 1939, when it is rampant and strong. There is still time to strangle Islamism in the cradle.

The above scenarios - Western nuclear assault on the Islamic world, resurgent Western ultra-nationalist fascism - show the danger for all of us, not least for the Islamic world, if we do not destroy Islamism now. Everyone who believes in freedom and tolerance, including liberal Muslims, must support the War on Islamism, or risk the above scenarios coming to pass.

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