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Israel - Israeli-Palestinian conflict - The future


  Pessimism

The recent past

Arafat destroyed Palestinian prosperity

The intifada is over, and Israel won

The Israeli wall

Gaza

Israel ending the occupation won't bring peace

  Optimism

The plan


Israel - The future

There will never be peace in the Middle East until the Palestinians change, and adopt the values of human rights, religious freedom and liberal democracy.

In the absence of that, Israel addressing their supposed grievances (ending the "occupation", allowing a "right to return") will lead to more violence, not less (as the "Peace Process Intifada" has shown). The only thing that will bring long-term peace is the gradual adoption of democracy and human rights by the Palestinians.



From pro-Israel demo, June 2007.
Israel is the front-line state of the West, facing the enemy before we have to.
In the 2000s, we discovered to our surprise that the disgusting suicide bombings we saw in Israel in the 1990s were not just Israel's problem. They were a glimpse of our future, in the rest of the West. They show what the future will be like, in Madrid, London and all western cities, which will have to live now for the next few decades under the constant threat of jihadi suicide bombing.
Israel's fight is our fight - the fight to preserve democracy, freedom of religion, free speech and human rights against our totalitarian enemies.




Pessimism

Israel has many bigoted, racist, Islamic enemies that want to destroy it, and under the right circumstances they would carry out another Holocaust.

Until the Islamic world changes, this threat of extermination will always hang over the future of Israel.




The recent past


The "Peace Process" caused more, not less killing




Arab/Palestinian terror killings in Israel, 1948-2011.
From here.




Arafat destroyed Palestinian prosperity


How Arafat destroyed Palestinian prosperity:
The GDP per capita of the West Bank and Gaza over the last few decades.
Stats from Angus Maddison.





The intifada is over, and Israel has won

The intifada is over, and the left was wrong. All through 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, as the Palestinian intifada raged against Jewish civilians, we heard again and again from the western left that Israel's response was all wrong. That a tough Israeli response would just encourage more hatred and violence, and breed more terrorists. That Sharon was a disaster.

But the left was wrong. Israel's response - military incursions, building the wall, and targeted assassination - ended the violence. Israel elected Sharon to stop the Palestinian violence - and he did. The western left was wrong about everything.





The Israeli wall has ended the intifada




Gaza




Israel ending the occupation of Gaza and the West Bank won't bring peace




Danny Ayalon explains how the occupation is not the cause of the conflict.
Ending the occupation will not bring peace.




Optimism

Is there any more optimistic note I could end on? Not really. It is the Palestinians that must change if there is ever to be peace.

The Palestinians must abandon Islamofascism and adopt the values of democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of religion and human rights. If they ever do so, with Israel next door, there will be peace and prosperity beyond their dreams.

In the meantime, while we wait for the Palestinians to change, it seems that a military/security solution is the way forward.


New Palestinians



The plan

OK, here's the only attempt I can make at optimism. For peace in Israel, the Palestinians must change. For that to happen, the entire Middle East must change:

  1. This is what America is trying to start with Iraq.
  2. Lebanon has already changed as a result.
  3. If democracy beds down in Iraq and Lebanon, Syria too will fall.
  4. And Iran will fall from within.
  5. If these all become democracies, the wave of change may finally arrive at the Palestinians.

This is not utopian. This could happen in the next couple of decades (look at how the Soviet world has totally changed since 1985). In a very real sense, the road to peace in Israel runs through Baghdad and Tehran.

In summary, there will be no peace in the Middle East until the Islamic mind changes, and embraces the Enlightenment and the modern world. This will take decades, but it could happen.



A Muslim in Kosovo sums up the entire problem with Palestinian and Iraqi Muslims - that in both countries majorities or large minorities preferred tribe, religion, hatred, honour, pride, revenge and glory to the less glamorous job of making their countries prosperous and successful:
"Kosovo is a success because we wanted a change. We are not like Iraqis or Palestinians who don't want change and seem to enjoy living in poverty. Here everyone is thinking about progress and the future."



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